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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199902-199904

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Precip 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
2
2
7
0
0
0
0
2
0
0
2
5
2
2
9

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
2
2
7
17
24
12
53
2
0
0
2
22
26
14
62

% contingency table
fcst
obs
33
22
22
78
0
0
0
0
22
0
0
22
56
22
22
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
5
3
3
11
27
39
19
85
3
0
0
3
35
42
23
100

hitrate: 0.333 hitrate: 0.435
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.40 0.00 1.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.32 2.04 0.14
Heidke skill score: 0.000 Heidke skill score: 0.153
true Heidke skill score: -0.286 true Heidke skill score: 0.050
Kuipers skill score: 0.000 Kuipers skill score: 0.153
true Kuipers skill score: -0.250 true Kuipers skill score: 0.046
threat score:
0.333 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.115 0.436 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.174 0.000 -0.125
equitable threat score:
0.022 0.054 -0.029
probability of detection:
0.600 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.136 0.923 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.571 0.000 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.571 0.547 1.000
samples: 9 out of 62 samples: 62 out of 62
%coverage: 14.52 %coverage: 100.00