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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199903-199905

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Precip 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
2
2
0
0
0
0
1
0
1
2
1
0
3
4

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
2
2
23
18
18
59
1
0
1
2
24
18
21
63

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
50
50
0
0
0
0
25
0
25
50
25
0
75
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
3
3
37
29
29
94
2
0
2
3
38
29
33
100

hitrate: 0.250 hitrate: 0.302
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.00 -- 0.67
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.08 3.28 0.10
Heidke skill score: -0.125 Heidke skill score: -0.048
true Heidke skill score: -0.500 true Heidke skill score: 0.016
Kuipers skill score: -0.125 Kuipers skill score: -0.048
true Kuipers skill score: -0.667 true Kuipers skill score: 0.017
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.250
threat score:
0.000 0.305 0.045
equitable threat score:
-0.200 0.000 -0.200
equitable threat score:
-0.030 0.027 0.016
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.333
probability of detection:
0.000 1.000 0.048
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.000 0.500
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.695 0.500
samples: 4 out of 63 samples: 63 out of 63
%coverage: 6.35 %coverage: 100.00