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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200102-200104

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Precip 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
0
1
0
2
3
5
0
3
0
3
0
6
3
9

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
0
1
16
33
14
63
0
3
0
3
16
37
14
67

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
11
0
11
0
22
33
56
0
33
0
33
0
67
33
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
0
1
24
49
21
94
0
4
0
4
24
55
21
100

hitrate: 0.222 hitrate: 0.493
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 0.83 1.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.06 1.70 0.21
Heidke skill score: -0.167 Heidke skill score: 0.239
true Heidke skill score: -0.500 true Heidke skill score: -0.085
Kuipers skill score: -0.167 Kuipers skill score: 0.239
true Kuipers skill score: -0.583 true Kuipers skill score: -0.067
threat score:
0.000 0.222 0.000
threat score:
0.000 0.493 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.235 -0.200
equitable threat score:
-0.014 -0.056 -0.038
probability of detection:
0.000 0.333 0.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.892 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.600 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.476 1.000
samples: 9 out of 67 samples: 67 out of 67
%coverage: 13.43 %coverage: 100.00