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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200106-200108

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Precip 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
2
3
0
1
1
2
0
0
0
0
0
2
3
5

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
2
3
17
24
22
63
0
0
0
0
17
25
24
66

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
20
40
60
0
20
20
40
0
0
0
0
0
40
60
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
3
5
26
36
33
95
0
0
0
0
26
38
36
100

hitrate: 0.200 hitrate: 0.364
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 1.00 0.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.18 2.52 0.00
Heidke skill score: -0.200 Heidke skill score: 0.045
true Heidke skill score: 0.048 true Heidke skill score: -0.015
Kuipers skill score: -0.200 Kuipers skill score: 0.045
true Kuipers skill score: 0.083 true Kuipers skill score: -0.015
threat score:
0.000 0.333 0.000
threat score:
0.000 0.375 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.091 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.040 0.003 0.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.500 0.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.960 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.500 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.619 0.000
samples: 5 out of 66 samples: 66 out of 66
%coverage: 7.58 %coverage: 100.00