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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200109-200111

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Precip 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
2
3
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
1
0
2
2
4

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
2
3
23
25
14
62
0
1
0
1
23
27
16
66

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
25
50
75
0
0
0
0
0
25
0
25
0
50
50
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
3
5
35
38
21
94
0
2
0
2
35
41
24
100

hitrate: 0.000 hitrate: 0.379
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 0.00 0.50
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.13 2.30 0.06
Heidke skill score: -0.500 Heidke skill score: 0.068
true Heidke skill score: -0.143 true Heidke skill score: -0.042
Kuipers skill score: -0.500 Kuipers skill score: 0.068
true Kuipers skill score: -0.250 true Kuipers skill score: -0.038
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.000 0.391 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 -0.200
equitable threat score:
-0.042 -0.009 -0.014
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.926 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.000 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.597 1.000
samples: 4 out of 66 samples: 66 out of 66
%coverage: 6.06 %coverage: 100.00