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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200110-200112

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Precip 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
2
2
5
0
0
0
0
0
0
3
3
1
2
5
8

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
2
2
5
30
16
11
57
0
0
3
3
31
18
16
65

% contingency table
fcst
obs
13
25
25
63
0
0
0
0
0
0
38
38
13
25
63
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
3
3
8
46
25
17
88
0
0
5
5
48
28
25
100

hitrate: 0.500 hitrate: 0.308
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
5.00 0.00 0.60
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.16 3.17 0.19
Heidke skill score: 0.250 Heidke skill score: -0.038
true Heidke skill score: 0.273 true Heidke skill score: 0.024
Kuipers skill score: 0.250 Kuipers skill score: -0.038
true Kuipers skill score: 0.353 true Kuipers skill score: 0.026
threat score:
0.200 0.000 0.600
threat score:
0.029 0.271 0.188
equitable threat score:
0.086 0.000 0.360
equitable threat score:
-0.042 0.005 0.148
probability of detection:
1.000 0.000 0.600
probability of detection:
0.032 0.889 0.188
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.800 0.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.800 0.719 0.000
samples: 8 out of 65 samples: 65 out of 65
%coverage: 12.31 %coverage: 100.00