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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200110-200112

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Precip 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
2
3
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
1
0
3
4

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
2
3
26
21
15
62
0
0
1
1
27
21
18
66

% contingency table
fcst
obs
25
0
50
75
0
0
0
0
0
0
25
25
25
0
75
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
3
5
39
32
23
94
0
0
2
2
41
32
27
100

hitrate: 0.500 hitrate: 0.348
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
3.00 -- 0.33
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.11 2.95 0.06
Heidke skill score: 0.250 Heidke skill score: 0.023
true Heidke skill score: 0.200 true Heidke skill score: 0.040
Kuipers skill score: 0.250 Kuipers skill score: 0.023
true Kuipers skill score: 0.333 true Kuipers skill score: 0.041
threat score:
0.333 0.000 0.333
threat score:
0.034 0.339 0.056
equitable threat score:
0.111 0.000 0.111
equitable threat score:
-0.008 0.030 0.041
probability of detection:
1.000 0.000 0.333
probability of detection:
0.037 1.000 0.056
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.667 0.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.667 0.661 0.000
samples: 4 out of 66 samples: 66 out of 66
%coverage: 6.06 %coverage: 100.00