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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200111-200201

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Precip 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
7
4
0
11
2
1
1
4
0
0
0
0
9
5
1
15

contingency table
fcst
obs
7
4
0
11
25
18
11
54
0
0
0
0
32
22
11
65

% contingency table
fcst
obs
47
27
0
73
13
7
7
27
0
0
0
0
60
33
7
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
11
6
0
17
38
28
17
83
0
0
0
0
49
34
17
100

hitrate: 0.533 hitrate: 0.385
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.22 0.80 0.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.34 2.45 0.00
Heidke skill score: 0.300 Heidke skill score: 0.077
true Heidke skill score: 0.009 true Heidke skill score: 0.032
Kuipers skill score: 0.300 Kuipers skill score: 0.077
true Kuipers skill score: 0.008 true Kuipers skill score: 0.033
threat score:
0.538 0.125 0.000
threat score:
0.194 0.310 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.062 -0.050 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.052 -0.007 0.000
probability of detection:
0.778 0.200 0.000
probability of detection:
0.219 0.818 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.364 0.750 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.364 0.667 0.000
samples: 15 out of 65 samples: 65 out of 65
%coverage: 23.08 %coverage: 100.00