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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200111-200201

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Precip 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
7
3
0
10
2
1
0
3
0
0
0
0
9
4
0
13

contingency table
fcst
obs
7
3
0
10
25
19
12
56
0
0
0
0
32
22
12
66

% contingency table
fcst
obs
54
23
0
77
15
8
0
23
0
0
0
0
69
31
0
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
11
5
0
15
38
29
18
85
0
0
0
0
48
33
18
100

hitrate: 0.615 hitrate: 0.394
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.11 0.75 --
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.31 2.55 0.00
Heidke skill score: 0.423 Heidke skill score: 0.091
true Heidke skill score: 0.030 true Heidke skill score: 0.058
Kuipers skill score: 0.423 Kuipers skill score: 0.091
true Kuipers skill score: 0.028 true Kuipers skill score: 0.061
threat score:
0.583 0.167 0.000
threat score:
0.200 0.322 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.015 0.015 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.071 0.008 0.000
probability of detection:
0.778 0.250 0.000
probability of detection:
0.219 0.864 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.300 0.667 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.300 0.661 0.000
samples: 13 out of 66 samples: 66 out of 66
%coverage: 19.70 %coverage: 100.00