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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200111-200201

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Precip 4.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
7
2
0
9
1
1
1
3
0
0
0
0
8
3
1
12

contingency table
fcst
obs
7
2
0
9
25
20
12
57
0
0
0
0
32
22
12
66

% contingency table
fcst
obs
58
17
0
75
8
8
8
25
0
0
0
0
67
25
8
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
11
3
0
14
38
30
18
86
0
0
0
0
48
33
18
100

hitrate: 0.667 hitrate: 0.409
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.12 1.00 0.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.28 2.59 0.00
Heidke skill score: 0.500 Heidke skill score: 0.114
true Heidke skill score: 0.238 true Heidke skill score: 0.085
Kuipers skill score: 0.500 Kuipers skill score: 0.114
true Kuipers skill score: 0.214 true Kuipers skill score: 0.089
threat score:
0.700 0.200 0.000
threat score:
0.206 0.339 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.250 0.059 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.089 0.025 0.000
probability of detection:
0.875 0.333 0.000
probability of detection:
0.219 0.909 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.222 0.667 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.222 0.649 0.000
samples: 12 out of 66 samples: 66 out of 66
%coverage: 18.18 %coverage: 100.00