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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200111-200201

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Precip 10.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
2
1
0
3
3
1
0
4

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
0
1
29
21
12
62
2
1
0
3
32
22
12
66

% contingency table
fcst
obs
25
0
0
25
0
0
0
0
50
25
0
75
75
25
0
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
0
2
44
32
18
94
3
2
0
5
48
33
18
100

hitrate: 0.250 hitrate: 0.333
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.33 0.00 --
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.03 2.82 0.25
Heidke skill score: -0.125 Heidke skill score: 0.000
true Heidke skill score: 0.077 true Heidke skill score: 0.007
Kuipers skill score: -0.125 Kuipers skill score: 0.000
true Kuipers skill score: 0.167 true Kuipers skill score: 0.007
threat score:
0.333 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.031 0.333 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.111 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.016 0.008 -0.038
probability of detection:
0.333 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.031 0.955 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.661 1.000
samples: 4 out of 66 samples: 66 out of 66
%coverage: 6.06 %coverage: 100.00