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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200112-200202

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Precip 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
5
2
1
8
3
2
0
5
1
2
0
3
9
6
1
16

contingency table
fcst
obs
5
2
1
8
32
18
3
53
1
2
0
3
38
22
4
64

% contingency table
fcst
obs
31
13
6
50
19
13
0
31
6
13
0
19
56
38
6
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
8
3
2
13
50
28
5
83
2
3
0
5
59
34
6
100

hitrate: 0.438 hitrate: 0.359
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.89 0.83 3.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.21 2.41 0.75
Heidke skill score: 0.156 Heidke skill score: 0.039
true Heidke skill score: 0.046 true Heidke skill score: -0.004
Kuipers skill score: 0.156 Kuipers skill score: 0.039
true Kuipers skill score: 0.051 true Kuipers skill score: -0.005
threat score:
0.417 0.222 0.000
threat score:
0.122 0.316 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.067 0.018 -0.049
equitable threat score:
0.007 -0.006 -0.028
probability of detection:
0.556 0.333 0.000
probability of detection:
0.132 0.818 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.375 0.600 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.375 0.660 1.000
samples: 16 out of 64 samples: 64 out of 64
%coverage: 25.00 %coverage: 100.00