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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200112-200202

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Precip 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
1
1
4
2
1
0
3
0
3
0
3
4
5
1
10

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
1
1
4
36
18
3
57
0
3
0
3
38
22
4
64

% contingency table
fcst
obs
20
10
10
40
20
10
0
30
0
30
0
30
40
50
10
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
3
2
2
6
56
28
5
89
0
5
0
5
59
34
6
100

hitrate: 0.300 hitrate: 0.312
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.00 0.60 3.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.11 2.59 0.75
Heidke skill score: -0.050 Heidke skill score: -0.031
true Heidke skill score: -0.061 true Heidke skill score: -0.052
Kuipers skill score: -0.050 Kuipers skill score: -0.031
true Kuipers skill score: -0.069 true Kuipers skill score: -0.064
threat score:
0.333 0.143 0.000
threat score:
0.050 0.295 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.091 -0.091 -0.081
equitable threat score:
-0.010 -0.038 -0.028
probability of detection:
0.500 0.200 0.000
probability of detection:
0.053 0.818 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.667 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.684 1.000
samples: 10 out of 64 samples: 64 out of 64
%coverage: 15.62 %coverage: 100.00