CPC Banner
 

CPC Verifications

Forecast 200201-200203

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Precip 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
11
1
0
12
3
1
0
4
1
2
0
3
15
4
0
19

contingency table
fcst
obs
11
1
0
12
31
12
7
50
1
2
0
3
43
15
7
65

% contingency table
fcst
obs
58
5
0
63
16
5
0
21
5
11
0
16
79
21
0
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
17
2
0
18
48
18
11
77
2
3
0
5
66
23
11
100

hitrate: 0.632 hitrate: 0.354
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.80 1.00 --
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.28 3.33 0.43
Heidke skill score: 0.447 Heidke skill score: 0.031
true Heidke skill score: 0.194 true Heidke skill score: 0.071
Kuipers skill score: 0.447 Kuipers skill score: 0.031
true Kuipers skill score: 0.267 true Kuipers skill score: 0.099
threat score:
0.688 0.143 0.000
threat score:
0.250 0.226 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.234 0.026 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.085 0.011 -0.033
probability of detection:
0.733 0.250 0.000
probability of detection:
0.256 0.800 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.083 0.750 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.083 0.760 1.000
samples: 19 out of 65 samples: 65 out of 65
%coverage: 29.23 %coverage: 100.00