CPC Banner
 

CPC Verifications

Forecast 200201-200203

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Precip 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
10
1
0
11
3
1
0
4
1
2
0
3
14
4
0
18

contingency table
fcst
obs
10
1
0
11
32
12
7
51
1
2
0
3
43
15
7
65

% contingency table
fcst
obs
56
6
0
61
17
6
0
22
6
11
0
17
78
22
0
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
15
2
0
17
49
18
11
78
2
3
0
5
66
23
11
100

hitrate: 0.611 hitrate: 0.338
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.79 1.00 --
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.26 3.40 0.43
Heidke skill score: 0.417 Heidke skill score: 0.008
true Heidke skill score: 0.182 true Heidke skill score: 0.058
Kuipers skill score: 0.417 Kuipers skill score: 0.008
true Kuipers skill score: 0.250 true Kuipers skill score: 0.081
threat score:
0.667 0.143 0.000
threat score:
0.227 0.222 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.224 0.018 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.074 0.005 -0.033
probability of detection:
0.714 0.250 0.000
probability of detection:
0.233 0.800 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.091 0.750 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.091 0.765 1.000
samples: 18 out of 65 samples: 65 out of 65
%coverage: 27.69 %coverage: 100.00