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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200201-200203

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Precip 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
6
1
0
7
4
1
0
5
1
1
0
2
11
3
0
14

contingency table
fcst
obs
6
1
0
7
36
13
7
56
1
1
0
2
43
15
7
65

% contingency table
fcst
obs
43
7
0
50
29
7
0
36
7
7
0
14
79
21
0
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
9
2
0
11
55
20
11
86
2
2
0
3
66
23
11
100

hitrate: 0.500 hitrate: 0.292
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.64 1.67 --
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.16 3.73 0.29
Heidke skill score: 0.250 Heidke skill score: -0.062
true Heidke skill score: 0.058 true Heidke skill score: 0.026
Kuipers skill score: 0.250 Kuipers skill score: -0.062
true Kuipers skill score: 0.091 true Kuipers skill score: 0.038
threat score:
0.500 0.143 0.000
threat score:
0.136 0.224 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.077 -0.012 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.035 0.002 -0.025
probability of detection:
0.545 0.333 0.000
probability of detection:
0.140 0.867 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.143 0.800 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.143 0.768 1.000
samples: 14 out of 65 samples: 65 out of 65
%coverage: 21.54 %coverage: 100.00