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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200201-200203

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Precip 4.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
5
1
0
6
1
0
0
1
2
1
0
3
8
2
0
10

contingency table
fcst
obs
5
1
0
6
36
13
7
56
2
1
0
3
43
15
7
65

% contingency table
fcst
obs
50
10
0
60
10
0
0
10
20
10
0
30
80
20
0
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
8
2
0
9
55
20
11
86
3
2
0
5
66
23
11
100

hitrate: 0.500 hitrate: 0.277
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.75 0.50 --
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.14 3.73 0.43
Heidke skill score: 0.250 Heidke skill score: -0.085
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: 0.016
Kuipers skill score: 0.250 Kuipers skill score: -0.085
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: 0.024
threat score:
0.556 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.114 0.224 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.048 -0.071 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.026 0.002 -0.033
probability of detection:
0.625 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.116 0.867 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.167 1.000 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.167 0.768 1.000
samples: 10 out of 65 samples: 65 out of 65
%coverage: 15.38 %coverage: 100.00