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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200201-200203

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Precip 7.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
1
0
3
2
0
0
2
0
1
0
1
4
2
0
6

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
1
0
3
41
15
7
63
0
1
0
1
43
17
7
67

% contingency table
fcst
obs
33
17
0
50
33
0
0
33
0
17
0
17
67
33
0
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
3
1
0
4
61
22
10
94
0
1
0
1
64
25
10
100

hitrate: 0.333 hitrate: 0.254
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.75 1.00 --
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.07 3.71 0.14
Heidke skill score: 0.000 Heidke skill score: -0.119
true Heidke skill score: -0.200 true Heidke skill score: -0.021
Kuipers skill score: 0.000 Kuipers skill score: -0.119
true Kuipers skill score: -0.250 true Kuipers skill score: -0.030
threat score:
0.400 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.045 0.231 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.200 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.002 -0.020 -0.013
probability of detection:
0.500 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.047 0.882 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.333 1.000 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.333 0.762 1.000
samples: 6 out of 67 samples: 67 out of 67
%coverage: 8.96 %coverage: 100.00