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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200202-200204

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Precip 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
6
0
0
6
4
1
1
6
0
0
0
0
10
1
1
12

contingency table
fcst
obs
6
0
0
6
32
16
11
59
0
0
0
0
38
16
11
65

% contingency table
fcst
obs
50
0
0
50
33
8
8
50
0
0
0
0
83
8
8
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
9
0
0
9
49
25
17
91
0
0
0
0
58
25
17
100

hitrate: 0.583 hitrate: 0.338
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.60 6.00 0.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.16 3.69 0.00
Heidke skill score: 0.375 Heidke skill score: 0.008
true Heidke skill score: 0.231 true Heidke skill score: 0.085
Kuipers skill score: 0.375 Kuipers skill score: 0.008
true Kuipers skill score: 0.429 true Kuipers skill score: 0.107
threat score:
0.600 0.167 0.000
threat score:
0.158 0.271 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.200 0.091 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.072 0.033 0.000
probability of detection:
0.600 1.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.158 1.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.833 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.729 0.000
samples: 12 out of 65 samples: 65 out of 65
%coverage: 18.46 %coverage: 100.00