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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200202-200204

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Precip 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
5
0
0
5
0
1
1
2
1
0
0
1
6
1
1
8

contingency table
fcst
obs
5
0
0
5
32
16
11
59
1
0
0
1
38
16
11
65

% contingency table
fcst
obs
63
0
0
63
0
13
13
25
13
0
0
13
75
13
13
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
8
0
0
8
49
25
17
91
2
0
0
2
58
25
17
100

hitrate: 0.750 hitrate: 0.323
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.83 2.00 1.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.13 3.69 0.09
Heidke skill score: 0.625 Heidke skill score: -0.015
true Heidke skill score: 0.484 true Heidke skill score: 0.071
Kuipers skill score: 0.625 Kuipers skill score: -0.015
true Kuipers skill score: 0.577 true Kuipers skill score: 0.092
threat score:
0.833 0.500 0.000
threat score:
0.132 0.271 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.556 0.429 -0.067
equitable threat score:
0.059 0.033 -0.014
probability of detection:
0.833 1.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.132 1.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.500 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.729 1.000
samples: 8 out of 65 samples: 65 out of 65
%coverage: 12.31 %coverage: 100.00