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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200202-200204

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Precip 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
4
0
0
4
2
1
1
4
0
0
0
0
6
1
1
8

contingency table
fcst
obs
4
0
0
4
34
16
11
61
0
0
0
0
38
16
11
65

% contingency table
fcst
obs
50
0
0
50
25
13
13
50
0
0
0
0
75
13
13
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
6
0
0
6
52
25
17
94
0
0
0
0
58
25
17
100

hitrate: 0.625 hitrate: 0.308
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.67 4.00 0.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.11 3.81 0.00
Heidke skill score: 0.438 Heidke skill score: -0.038
true Heidke skill score: 0.333 true Heidke skill score: 0.056
Kuipers skill score: 0.438 Kuipers skill score: -0.038
true Kuipers skill score: 0.462 true Kuipers skill score: 0.072
threat score:
0.667 0.250 0.000
threat score:
0.105 0.262 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.333 0.143 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.047 0.021 0.000
probability of detection:
0.667 1.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.105 1.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.750 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.738 0.000
samples: 8 out of 65 samples: 65 out of 65
%coverage: 12.31 %coverage: 100.00