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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200202-200204

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Precip 4.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
0
0
3
2
1
1
4
1
0
0
1
6
1
1
8

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
0
0
3
34
16
11
61
1
0
0
1
38
16
11
65

% contingency table
fcst
obs
38
0
0
38
25
13
13
50
13
0
0
13
75
13
13
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
5
0
0
5
52
25
17
94
2
0
0
2
58
25
17
100

hitrate: 0.500 hitrate: 0.292
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.50 4.00 1.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.08 3.81 0.09
Heidke skill score: 0.250 Heidke skill score: -0.062
true Heidke skill score: 0.220 true Heidke skill score: 0.043
Kuipers skill score: 0.250 Kuipers skill score: -0.062
true Kuipers skill score: 0.346 true Kuipers skill score: 0.056
threat score:
0.500 0.250 0.000
threat score:
0.079 0.262 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.200 0.143 -0.067
equitable threat score:
0.034 0.021 -0.014
probability of detection:
0.500 1.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.079 1.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.750 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.738 1.000
samples: 8 out of 65 samples: 65 out of 65
%coverage: 12.31 %coverage: 100.00