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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200202-200204

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Precip 7.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
0
2
0
2
1
3
1
0
0
1
3
2
1
6

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
0
2
36
14
13
63
1
0
0
1
39
14
13
66

% contingency table
fcst
obs
33
0
0
33
0
33
17
50
17
0
0
17
50
33
17
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
3
0
0
3
55
21
20
95
2
0
0
2
59
21
20
100

hitrate: 0.667 hitrate: 0.242
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.67 1.50 1.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.05 4.50 0.08
Heidke skill score: 0.500 Heidke skill score: -0.136
true Heidke skill score: 0.478 true Heidke skill score: 0.025
Kuipers skill score: 0.500 Kuipers skill score: -0.136
true Kuipers skill score: 0.500 true Kuipers skill score: 0.034
threat score:
0.667 0.667 0.000
threat score:
0.051 0.222 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.500 0.500 -0.091
equitable threat score:
0.022 0.013 -0.014
probability of detection:
0.667 1.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.051 1.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.333 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.778 1.000
samples: 6 out of 66 samples: 66 out of 66
%coverage: 9.09 %coverage: 100.00