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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200202-200204

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Precip 8.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
1
0
2
0
1
1
2
0
0
0
0
1
2
1
4

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
1
0
2
38
13
13
64
0
0
0
0
39
14
13
66

% contingency table
fcst
obs
25
25
0
50
0
25
25
50
0
0
0
0
25
50
25
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
2
0
3
58
20
20
97
0
0
0
0
59
21
20
100

hitrate: 0.500 hitrate: 0.212
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.00 1.00 0.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.05 4.57 0.00
Heidke skill score: 0.250 Heidke skill score: -0.182
true Heidke skill score: 0.200 true Heidke skill score: -0.015
Kuipers skill score: 0.250 Kuipers skill score: -0.182
true Kuipers skill score: 0.200 true Kuipers skill score: -0.020
threat score:
0.500 0.333 0.000
threat score:
0.025 0.200 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.333 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.005 -0.011 0.000
probability of detection:
1.000 0.500 0.000
probability of detection:
0.026 0.929 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.500 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.797 0.000
samples: 4 out of 66 samples: 66 out of 66
%coverage: 6.06 %coverage: 100.00