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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200205-200207

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Precip 10.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
1
1
0
2
1
3
0
0
0
0
0
2
2
4

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
1
1
30
17
18
65
0
0
0
0
30
17
19
66

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
25
25
0
50
25
75
0
0
0
0
0
50
50
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
2
2
45
26
27
98
0
0
0
0
45
26
29
100

hitrate: 0.500 hitrate: 0.258
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 1.50 0.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.03 3.82 0.00
Heidke skill score: 0.250 Heidke skill score: -0.114
true Heidke skill score: 0.200 true Heidke skill score: -0.004
Kuipers skill score: 0.250 Kuipers skill score: -0.114
true Kuipers skill score: 0.250 true Kuipers skill score: -0.005
threat score:
0.000 0.667 0.000
threat score:
0.000 0.262 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.333 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.015 0.005 0.000
probability of detection:
0.000 1.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.000 1.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.333 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.738 0.000
samples: 4 out of 66 samples: 66 out of 66
%coverage: 6.06 %coverage: 100.00