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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200208-200210

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Precip 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
2
0
4
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
2
0
4

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
2
0
4
17
25
19
61
0
0
0
0
19
27
19
65

% contingency table
fcst
obs
50
50
0
100
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
50
50
0
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
3
3
0
6
26
38
29
94
0
0
0
0
29
42
29
100

hitrate: 0.500 hitrate: 0.415
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.00 0.00 --
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.21 2.26 0.00
Heidke skill score: 0.250 Heidke skill score: 0.123
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: 0.013
Kuipers skill score: 0.250 Kuipers skill score: 0.123
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: 0.012
threat score:
0.500 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.095 0.397 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.042 -0.009 0.000
probability of detection:
1.000 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.105 0.926 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.590 0.000
samples: 4 out of 65 samples: 65 out of 65
%coverage: 6.15 %coverage: 100.00