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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200208-200210

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Precip 4.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
1
0
3
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
1
0
3

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
1
0
3
17
26
19
62
0
0
0
0
19
27
19
65

% contingency table
fcst
obs
67
33
0
100
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
67
33
0
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
3
2
0
5
26
40
29
95
0
0
0
0
29
42
29
100

hitrate: 0.667 hitrate: 0.431
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.50 0.00 --
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.16 2.30 0.00
Heidke skill score: 0.500 Heidke skill score: 0.146
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: 0.036
Kuipers skill score: 0.500 Kuipers skill score: 0.146
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: 0.032
threat score:
0.667 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.100 0.413 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.059 0.007 0.000
probability of detection:
1.000 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.105 0.963 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.333 0.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.333 0.581 0.000
samples: 3 out of 65 samples: 65 out of 65
%coverage: 4.62 %coverage: 100.00