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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200210-200212

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Precip 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
1
1
3
2
0
0
2
1
1
0
2
4
2
1
7

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
1
1
3
19
17
24
60
1
1
0
2
21
19
25
65

% contingency table
fcst
obs
14
14
14
43
29
0
0
29
14
14
0
29
57
29
14
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
2
2
5
29
26
37
92
2
2
0
3
32
29
38
100

hitrate: 0.143 hitrate: 0.277
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.75 1.00 2.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.14 3.16 0.08
Heidke skill score: -0.286 Heidke skill score: -0.085
true Heidke skill score: -0.355 true Heidke skill score: -0.028
Kuipers skill score: -0.286 Kuipers skill score: -0.085
true Kuipers skill score: -0.393 true Kuipers skill score: -0.030
threat score:
0.167 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.043 0.274 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.167 -0.167 -0.105
equitable threat score:
0.001 -0.012 -0.029
probability of detection:
0.250 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.048 0.895 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.667 1.000 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.667 0.717 1.000
samples: 7 out of 65 samples: 65 out of 65
%coverage: 10.77 %coverage: 100.00