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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200210-200212

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Precip 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
2
0
3
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
2
0
3

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
2
0
3
20
17
25
62
0
0
0
0
21
19
25
65

% contingency table
fcst
obs
33
67
0
100
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
33
67
0
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
3
0
5
31
26
38
95
0
0
0
0
32
29
38
100

hitrate: 0.333 hitrate: 0.277
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
3.00 0.00 --
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.14 3.26 0.00
Heidke skill score: 0.000 Heidke skill score: -0.085
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: -0.024
Kuipers skill score: 0.000 Kuipers skill score: -0.085
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: -0.025
threat score:
0.333 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.043 0.266 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.001 -0.024 0.000
probability of detection:
1.000 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.048 0.895 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.667 0.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.667 0.726 0.000
samples: 3 out of 65 samples: 65 out of 65
%coverage: 4.62 %coverage: 100.00