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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200210-200212

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Precip 4.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
2
0
4
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
2
0
4

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
2
0
4
19
17
25
61
0
0
0
0
21
19
25
65

% contingency table
fcst
obs
50
50
0
100
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
50
50
0
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
3
3
0
6
29
26
38
94
0
0
0
0
32
29
38
100

hitrate: 0.500 hitrate: 0.292
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.00 0.00 --
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.19 3.21 0.00
Heidke skill score: 0.250 Heidke skill score: -0.062
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: -0.003
Kuipers skill score: 0.250 Kuipers skill score: -0.062
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: -0.003
threat score:
0.500 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.087 0.270 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.033 -0.018 0.000
probability of detection:
1.000 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.095 0.895 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.721 0.000
samples: 4 out of 65 samples: 65 out of 65
%coverage: 6.15 %coverage: 100.00