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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200211-200301

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Precip 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
7
4
1
12
2
2
1
5
0
1
1
2
9
7
3
19

contingency table
fcst
obs
7
4
1
12
33
16
2
51
0
1
1
2
40
21
4
65

% contingency table
fcst
obs
37
21
5
63
11
11
5
26
0
5
5
11
47
37
16
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
11
6
2
18
51
25
3
78
0
2
2
3
62
32
6
100

hitrate: 0.526 hitrate: 0.369
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.33 0.71 0.67
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.30 2.43 0.50
Heidke skill score: 0.289 Heidke skill score: 0.054
true Heidke skill score: 0.193 true Heidke skill score: 0.000
Kuipers skill score: 0.289 Kuipers skill score: 0.054
true Kuipers skill score: 0.185 true Kuipers skill score: 0.000
threat score:
0.500 0.200 0.250
threat score:
0.156 0.286 0.200
equitable threat score:
0.158 0.019 0.186
equitable threat score:
-0.010 -0.012 0.180
probability of detection:
0.778 0.286 0.333
probability of detection:
0.175 0.762 0.250
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.417 0.600 0.500
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.417 0.686 0.500
samples: 19 out of 65 samples: 65 out of 65
%coverage: 29.23 %coverage: 100.00