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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200211-200301

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Precip 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
6
4
0
10
3
2
0
5
0
0
1
1
9
6
1
16

contingency table
fcst
obs
6
4
0
10
34
17
3
54
0
0
1
1
40
21
4
65

% contingency table
fcst
obs
38
25
0
63
19
13
0
31
0
0
6
6
56
38
6
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
9
6
0
15
52
26
5
83
0
0
2
2
62
32
6
100

hitrate: 0.562 hitrate: 0.369
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.11 0.83 1.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.25 2.57 0.25
Heidke skill score: 0.344 Heidke skill score: 0.054
true Heidke skill score: 0.170 true Heidke skill score: 0.008
Kuipers skill score: 0.344 Kuipers skill score: 0.054
true Kuipers skill score: 0.167 true Kuipers skill score: 0.010
threat score:
0.462 0.222 1.000
threat score:
0.136 0.293 0.250
equitable threat score:
0.051 0.018 1.000
equitable threat score:
-0.004 -0.011 0.238
probability of detection:
0.667 0.333 1.000
probability of detection:
0.150 0.810 0.250
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.400 0.600 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.400 0.685 0.000
samples: 16 out of 65 samples: 65 out of 65
%coverage: 24.62 %coverage: 100.00