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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200211-200301

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Precip 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
6
5
0
11
1
1
0
2
0
0
1
1
7
6
1
14

contingency table
fcst
obs
6
5
0
11
34
16
3
53
0
0
1
1
40
21
4
65

% contingency table
fcst
obs
43
36
0
79
7
7
0
14
0
0
7
7
50
43
7
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
9
8
0
17
52
25
5
82
0
0
2
2
62
32
6
100

hitrate: 0.571 hitrate: 0.354
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.57 0.33 1.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.28 2.52 0.25
Heidke skill score: 0.357 Heidke skill score: 0.031
true Heidke skill score: 0.208 true Heidke skill score: -0.023
Kuipers skill score: 0.357 Kuipers skill score: 0.031
true Kuipers skill score: 0.200 true Kuipers skill score: -0.029
threat score:
0.500 0.143 1.000
threat score:
0.133 0.276 0.250
equitable threat score:
0.077 0.023 1.000
equitable threat score:
-0.020 -0.027 0.238
probability of detection:
0.857 0.167 1.000
probability of detection:
0.150 0.762 0.250
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.455 0.500 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.455 0.698 0.000
samples: 14 out of 65 samples: 65 out of 65
%coverage: 21.54 %coverage: 100.00