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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200211-200301

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Precip 4.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
7
4
0
11
1
1
0
2
0
0
1
1
8
5
1
14

contingency table
fcst
obs
7
4
0
11
33
17
3
53
0
0
1
1
40
21
4
65

% contingency table
fcst
obs
50
29
0
79
7
7
0
14
0
0
7
7
57
36
7
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
11
6
0
17
51
26
5
82
0
0
2
2
62
32
6
100

hitrate: 0.643 hitrate: 0.385
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.37 0.40 1.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.28 2.52 0.25
Heidke skill score: 0.464 Heidke skill score: 0.077
true Heidke skill score: 0.278 true Heidke skill score: 0.025
Kuipers skill score: 0.464 Kuipers skill score: 0.077
true Kuipers skill score: 0.255 true Kuipers skill score: 0.031
threat score:
0.583 0.167 1.000
threat score:
0.159 0.298 0.250
equitable threat score:
0.125 0.054 1.000
equitable threat score:
0.006 -0.003 0.238
probability of detection:
0.875 0.200 1.000
probability of detection:
0.175 0.810 0.250
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.364 0.500 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.364 0.679 0.000
samples: 14 out of 65 samples: 65 out of 65
%coverage: 21.54 %coverage: 100.00