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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200211-200301

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Precip 8.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
2
0
3
0
0
1
1
0
0
0
0
1
2
1
4

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
2
0
3
39
19
4
62
0
0
0
0
40
21
4
65

% contingency table
fcst
obs
25
50
0
75
0
0
25
25
0
0
0
0
25
50
25
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
3
0
5
60
29
6
95
0
0
0
0
62
32
6
100

hitrate: 0.250 hitrate: 0.308
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
3.00 0.50 0.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.07 2.95 0.00
Heidke skill score: -0.125 Heidke skill score: -0.038
true Heidke skill score: -0.091 true Heidke skill score: -0.044
Kuipers skill score: -0.125 Kuipers skill score: -0.038
true Kuipers skill score: -0.100 true Kuipers skill score: -0.056
threat score:
0.333 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.024 0.297 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.111 -0.200 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.021 -0.023 0.000
probability of detection:
1.000 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.025 0.905 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.667 1.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.667 0.694 0.000
samples: 4 out of 65 samples: 65 out of 65
%coverage: 6.15 %coverage: 100.00