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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200212-200302

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Precip 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
2
1
4
2
4
1
7
3
3
3
9
6
9
5
20

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
2
1
4
22
19
10
51
3
3
3
9
26
24
14
64

% contingency table
fcst
obs
5
10
5
20
10
20
5
35
15
15
15
45
30
45
25
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
3
2
6
34
30
16
80
5
5
5
14
41
38
22
100

hitrate: 0.400 hitrate: 0.359
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.67 0.78 1.80
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.15 2.12 0.64
Heidke skill score: 0.100 Heidke skill score: 0.039
true Heidke skill score: 0.104 true Heidke skill score: 0.007
Kuipers skill score: 0.100 Kuipers skill score: 0.039
true Kuipers skill score: 0.109 true Kuipers skill score: 0.007
threat score:
0.111 0.333 0.273
threat score:
0.034 0.339 0.150
equitable threat score:
-0.026 0.096 0.086
equitable threat score:
-0.023 -0.003 0.057
probability of detection:
0.167 0.444 0.600
probability of detection:
0.038 0.792 0.214
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.750 0.429 0.667
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.750 0.627 0.667
samples: 20 out of 64 samples: 64 out of 64
%coverage: 31.25 %coverage: 100.00