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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200212-200302

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Precip 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
4
1
6
1
2
2
5
3
1
2
6
5
7
5
17

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
4
1
6
22
19
11
52
3
1
2
6
26
24
14
64

% contingency table
fcst
obs
6
24
6
35
6
12
12
29
18
6
12
35
29
41
29
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
6
2
9
34
30
17
81
5
2
3
9
41
38
22
100

hitrate: 0.294 hitrate: 0.344
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.20 0.71 1.20
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.23 2.17 0.43
Heidke skill score: -0.059 Heidke skill score: 0.016
true Heidke skill score: -0.052 true Heidke skill score: -0.031
Kuipers skill score: -0.059 Kuipers skill score: 0.016
true Kuipers skill score: -0.053 true Kuipers skill score: -0.030
threat score:
0.100 0.200 0.222
threat score:
0.032 0.333 0.111
equitable threat score:
-0.093 -0.007 0.033
equitable threat score:
-0.050 -0.013 0.041
probability of detection:
0.200 0.286 0.400
probability of detection:
0.038 0.792 0.143
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.833 0.600 0.667
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.833 0.635 0.667
samples: 17 out of 64 samples: 64 out of 64
%coverage: 26.56 %coverage: 100.00