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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200212-200302

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Precip 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
1
2
0
2
1
3
2
1
2
5
2
4
4
10

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
1
2
24
22
11
57
2
1
2
5
26
24
14
64

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
10
10
20
0
20
10
30
20
10
20
50
20
40
40
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
2
3
38
34
17
89
3
2
3
8
41
38
22
100

hitrate: 0.400 hitrate: 0.375
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.00 0.75 1.25
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.08 2.38 0.36
Heidke skill score: 0.100 Heidke skill score: 0.062
true Heidke skill score: 0.062 true Heidke skill score: 0.018
Kuipers skill score: 0.100 Kuipers skill score: 0.062
true Kuipers skill score: 0.062 true Kuipers skill score: 0.017
threat score:
0.000 0.400 0.286
threat score:
0.000 0.373 0.118
equitable threat score:
-0.111 0.211 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.030 0.017 0.057
probability of detection:
0.000 0.500 0.500
probability of detection:
0.000 0.917 0.143
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.333 0.600
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.614 0.600
samples: 10 out of 64 samples: 64 out of 64
%coverage: 15.62 %coverage: 100.00