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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200212-200302

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Precip 4.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
1
2
0
1
1
2
2
2
2
6
2
4
4
10

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
1
2
24
21
11
56
2
2
2
6
26
24
14
64

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
10
10
20
0
10
10
20
20
20
20
60
20
40
40
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
2
3
38
33
17
88
3
3
3
9
41
38
22
100

hitrate: 0.300 hitrate: 0.359
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.00 0.50 1.50
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.08 2.33 0.43
Heidke skill score: -0.050 Heidke skill score: 0.039
true Heidke skill score: -0.094 true Heidke skill score: -0.003
Kuipers skill score: -0.050 Kuipers skill score: 0.039
true Kuipers skill score: -0.094 true Kuipers skill score: -0.003
threat score:
0.000 0.200 0.250
threat score:
0.000 0.356 0.111
equitable threat score:
-0.111 0.048 -0.071
equitable threat score:
-0.030 0.000 0.041
probability of detection:
0.000 0.250 0.500
probability of detection:
0.000 0.875 0.143
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.500 0.667
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.625 0.667
samples: 10 out of 64 samples: 64 out of 64
%coverage: 15.62 %coverage: 100.00