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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200301-200303

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Precip 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
1
1
4
2
1
3
6
2
3
2
7
6
5
6
17

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
1
1
4
32
15
7
54
2
3
2
7
36
19
10
65

% contingency table
fcst
obs
12
6
6
24
12
6
18
35
12
18
12
41
35
29
35
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
3
2
2
6
49
23
11
83
3
5
3
11
55
29
15
100

hitrate: 0.294 hitrate: 0.292
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.67 1.20 1.17
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.11 2.84 0.70
Heidke skill score: -0.059 Heidke skill score: -0.062
true Heidke skill score: -0.057 true Heidke skill score: -0.002
Kuipers skill score: -0.059 Kuipers skill score: -0.062
true Kuipers skill score: -0.057 true Kuipers skill score: -0.002
threat score:
0.250 0.100 0.182
threat score:
0.053 0.259 0.133
equitable threat score:
0.089 -0.093 -0.055
equitable threat score:
-0.006 -0.019 0.066
probability of detection:
0.333 0.200 0.333
probability of detection:
0.056 0.789 0.200
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.833 0.714
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.722 0.714
samples: 17 out of 65 samples: 65 out of 65
%coverage: 26.15 %coverage: 100.00