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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200301-200303

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Precip 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
2
3
8
1
2
0
3
4
1
3
8
8
5
6
19

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
2
3
8
29
16
4
49
4
1
3
8
36
19
10
65

% contingency table
fcst
obs
16
11
16
42
5
11
0
16
21
5
16
42
42
26
32
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
5
3
5
12
45
25
6
75
6
2
5
12
55
29
15
100

hitrate: 0.421 hitrate: 0.338
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.00 0.60 1.33
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.22 2.58 0.80
Heidke skill score: 0.132 Heidke skill score: 0.008
true Heidke skill score: 0.107 true Heidke skill score: 0.045
Kuipers skill score: 0.132 Kuipers skill score: 0.008
true Kuipers skill score: 0.106 true Kuipers skill score: 0.053
threat score:
0.231 0.333 0.273
threat score:
0.073 0.308 0.200
equitable threat score:
-0.038 0.232 0.056
equitable threat score:
-0.039 0.045 0.128
probability of detection:
0.375 0.400 0.500
probability of detection:
0.083 0.842 0.300
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.625 0.333 0.625
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.625 0.673 0.625
samples: 19 out of 65 samples: 65 out of 65
%coverage: 29.23 %coverage: 100.00