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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200301-200303

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Precip 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
1
1
4
1
1
0
2
4
2
3
9
7
4
4
15

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
1
1
4
30
16
6
52
4
2
3
9
36
19
10
65

% contingency table
fcst
obs
13
7
7
27
7
7
0
13
27
13
20
60
47
27
27
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
3
2
2
6
46
25
9
80
6
3
5
14
55
29
15
100

hitrate: 0.400 hitrate: 0.323
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.57 0.50 2.25
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.11 2.74 0.90
Heidke skill score: 0.100 Heidke skill score: -0.015
true Heidke skill score: 0.118 true Heidke skill score: 0.048
Kuipers skill score: 0.100 Kuipers skill score: -0.015
true Kuipers skill score: 0.125 true Kuipers skill score: 0.058
threat score:
0.222 0.200 0.300
threat score:
0.053 0.291 0.188
equitable threat score:
0.019 0.104 0.079
equitable threat score:
-0.006 0.020 0.111
probability of detection:
0.286 0.250 0.750
probability of detection:
0.056 0.842 0.300
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.500 0.667
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.692 0.667
samples: 15 out of 65 samples: 65 out of 65
%coverage: 23.08 %coverage: 100.00