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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200301-200303

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Precip 4.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
1
1
4
1
1
0
2
2
1
1
4
5
3
2
10

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
1
1
4
32
17
8
57
2
1
1
4
36
19
10
65

% contingency table
fcst
obs
20
10
10
40
10
10
0
20
20
10
10
40
50
30
20
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
3
2
2
6
49
26
12
88
3
2
2
6
55
29
15
100

hitrate: 0.400 hitrate: 0.308
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.80 0.67 2.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.11 3.00 0.40
Heidke skill score: 0.100 Heidke skill score: -0.038
true Heidke skill score: 0.091 true Heidke skill score: 0.011
Kuipers skill score: 0.100 Kuipers skill score: -0.038
true Kuipers skill score: 0.097 true Kuipers skill score: 0.013
threat score:
0.286 0.250 0.200
threat score:
0.053 0.288 0.077
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.118 0.048
equitable threat score:
-0.006 0.008 0.031
probability of detection:
0.400 0.333 0.500
probability of detection:
0.056 0.895 0.100
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.500 0.750
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.702 0.750
samples: 10 out of 65 samples: 65 out of 65
%coverage: 15.38 %coverage: 100.00