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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200301-200303

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Precip 7.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
1
1
3
0
2
0
2
2
0
0
2
3
3
1
7

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
1
1
3
33
18
9
60
2
0
0
2
36
19
10
65

% contingency table
fcst
obs
14
14
14
43
0
29
0
29
29
0
0
29
43
43
14
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
2
2
5
51
28
14
92
3
0
0
3
55
29
15
100

hitrate: 0.429 hitrate: 0.292
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.00 0.67 2.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.08 3.16 0.20
Heidke skill score: 0.143 Heidke skill score: -0.062
true Heidke skill score: 0.125 true Heidke skill score: -0.011
Kuipers skill score: 0.143 Kuipers skill score: -0.062
true Kuipers skill score: 0.133 true Kuipers skill score: -0.013
threat score:
0.200 0.667 0.000
threat score:
0.026 0.295 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.077 0.533 -0.105
equitable threat score:
-0.018 0.011 -0.026
probability of detection:
0.333 0.667 0.000
probability of detection:
0.028 0.947 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.667 0.000 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.667 0.700 1.000
samples: 7 out of 65 samples: 65 out of 65
%coverage: 10.77 %coverage: 100.00