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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200301-200303

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Precip 9.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
1
2
0
1
0
1
1
0
0
1
2
1
1
4

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
1
2
34
19
9
62
1
0
0
1
36
19
10
65

% contingency table
fcst
obs
25
0
25
50
0
25
0
25
25
0
0
25
50
25
25
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
2
3
52
29
14
95
2
0
0
2
55
29
15
100

hitrate: 0.500 hitrate: 0.308
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.00 1.00 1.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.06 3.26 0.10
Heidke skill score: 0.250 Heidke skill score: -0.038
true Heidke skill score: 0.200 true Heidke skill score: 0.013
Kuipers skill score: 0.250 Kuipers skill score: -0.038
true Kuipers skill score: 0.200 true Kuipers skill score: 0.016
threat score:
0.333 1.000 0.000
threat score:
0.027 0.306 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 1.000 -0.143
equitable threat score:
-0.003 0.020 -0.014
probability of detection:
0.500 1.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.028 1.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.000 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.694 1.000
samples: 4 out of 65 samples: 65 out of 65
%coverage: 6.15 %coverage: 100.00