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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200301-200303

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Precip 10.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
1
0
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
0
2

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
1
0
2
35
18
10
63
0
0
0
0
36
19
10
65

% contingency table
fcst
obs
50
50
0
100
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
50
50
0
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
2
0
3
54
28
15
97
0
0
0
0
55
29
15
100

hitrate: 0.500 hitrate: 0.292
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.00 0.00 --
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.06 3.32 0.00
Heidke skill score: 0.250 Heidke skill score: -0.062
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: -0.012
Kuipers skill score: 0.250 Kuipers skill score: -0.062
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: -0.014
threat score:
0.500 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.027 0.281 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.003 -0.009 0.000
probability of detection:
1.000 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.028 0.947 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.714 0.000
samples: 2 out of 65 samples: 65 out of 65
%coverage: 3.08 %coverage: 100.00