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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199501-199503

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
2
0
6
30
36
0
6
32
38

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
20
20
0
6
30
36
0
6
50
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
5
5
0
16
79
95
0
16
84
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
36
36
0
11
54
64
0
11
89
100

hitrate: 0.789 hitrate: 0.536
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 0.33 1.12
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 3.33 0.72
Heidke skill score: 0.684 Heidke skill score: 0.304
true Heidke skill score: -0.086 true Heidke skill score: -0.197
Kuipers skill score: 0.684 Kuipers skill score: 0.304
true Kuipers skill score: -0.062 true Kuipers skill score: -0.400
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.789
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.536
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.041 -0.041
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.090 -0.090
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.938
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.600
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 1.000 0.167
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 1.000 0.167
samples: 38 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 67.86 %coverage: 100.00