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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199502-199504

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
3
4
7
0
0
4
4
0
6
12
18
0
9
20
29

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
3
4
7
0
17
14
31
0
6
12
18
0
26
30
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
10
14
24
0
0
14
14
0
21
41
62
0
31
69
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
5
7
13
0
30
25
55
0
11
21
32
0
46
54
100

hitrate: 0.414 hitrate: 0.518
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 0.44 0.90
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 1.19 0.60
Heidke skill score: 0.121 Heidke skill score: 0.277
true Heidke skill score: -0.108 true Heidke skill score: 0.155
Kuipers skill score: 0.121 Kuipers skill score: 0.277
true Kuipers skill score: -0.133 true Kuipers skill score: 0.178
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.462
threat score:
0.000 0.425 0.333
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.106 -0.030
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.102 0.089
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.600
probability of detection:
0.000 0.654 0.400
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 1.000 0.333
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.452 0.333
samples: 29 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 51.79 %coverage: 100.00