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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199502-199504

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
2
3
0
2
2
4
0
6
11
17
0
9
15
24

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
2
3
0
19
17
36
0
6
11
17
0
26
30
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
4
8
13
0
8
8
17
0
25
46
71
0
38
63
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
4
5
0
34
30
64
0
11
20
30
0
46
54
100

hitrate: 0.542 hitrate: 0.536
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 0.44 1.13
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 1.38 0.57
Heidke skill score: 0.313 Heidke skill score: 0.304
true Heidke skill score: 0.074 true Heidke skill score: 0.138
Kuipers skill score: 0.313 Kuipers skill score: 0.304
true Kuipers skill score: 0.078 true Kuipers skill score: 0.150
threat score:
0.000 0.182 0.524
threat score:
0.000 0.442 0.306
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.053 0.036
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.087 0.070
probability of detection:
0.000 0.222 0.733
probability of detection:
0.000 0.731 0.367
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.500 0.353
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.472 0.353
samples: 24 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 42.86 %coverage: 100.00