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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199503-199505

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
3
1
5
0
0
0
0
1
7
7
15
2
10
8
20

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
3
1
5
9
13
14
36
1
7
7
15
11
23
22
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
5
15
5
25
0
0
0
0
5
35
35
75
10
50
40
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
5
2
9
16
23
25
64
2
13
13
27
20
41
39
100

hitrate: 0.400 hitrate: 0.375
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.50 0.00 1.88
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.45 1.57 0.68
Heidke skill score: 0.100 Heidke skill score: 0.062
true Heidke skill score: 0.111 true Heidke skill score: -0.019
Kuipers skill score: 0.100 Kuipers skill score: 0.062
true Kuipers skill score: 0.129 true Kuipers skill score: -0.018
threat score:
0.167 0.000 0.438
threat score:
0.067 0.283 0.233
equitable threat score:
0.091 0.000 0.100
equitable threat score:
0.001 -0.057 0.046
probability of detection:
0.500 0.000 0.875
probability of detection:
0.091 0.565 0.318
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.800 0.000 0.533
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.800 0.639 0.533
samples: 20 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 35.71 %coverage: 100.00